A standoff on seat sharing for the upcoming Bihar assembly elections has brought the Bharatiya Janata Party to a crossroads with its three allies in the state, the Rashtriya Lok Samta Party. With the RLSP increasing the number of seats it wants to contest, the BJP is said to be weighing the option of dumping its ally altogether, just like it jettisoned the Shiv Sena ahead of last year's Maharashtra polls.

A final attempt to break the deadlock is likely to be made on August 28, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to meet Union minister and RLSP chief Upendra Kushwaha , BJP officials said.

The wedge between the two parties became public on August 21 when Kushwaha told journalists in Patna that the BJP should contest from 102 seats as it did in the 2010 assembly elections and leave the remaining 141 seats to its partners in the National Democratic Alliance. “Last time, there was only one ally [the Janata Dal-United], but this time there are three allies,” he said. Kushwaha said that the RLSP wanted to contest 67 seats and the Lok Janshakti Party should be given 74 seats. As for the third ally, former Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi's Hindustani Awam Morcha, Kushwaha said that the “BJP can adjust some seats for it also”.

On shaky ground

On the surface, the BJP has maintained restraint so far, waiting until Tuesday to announce that it planned to field candidates for 170 of the state's 243 seats. But internally, there is near-unanimity among the majority of party leaders in Bihar that Kushwaha has become a problem for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance.

Besides, the BJP does not seem quite confident about Kushwaha’s allegiance. “It is an open secret that Kushwaha is in touch with Lalu Prasad,” said a BJP leader in Bihar. “To become the chief minister, he would do anything, even shift his loyalty after the elections.”

This distrust is one the reasons why the BJP seems reluctant to give too many seats to Kushwaha’s party.  The saffron party isn't thinking of giving the RLSP anything more than 20 seats, said a senior BJP leader

As relations between the BJP and the RLSP turn sour, Kushwaha has suddenly emerged as the man to be watched in Bihar politics. Despite being the leader of the numerically insignificant Koeri caste, his ambitions are  boundless. In the Lok Sabha elections last year, the RLSP, which was barely a year old, contested three seats in Bihar as part of the NDA and won all of them. Two months ago, the RLSP passed a resolution demanding that Kushwaha be declared as the NDA's chief ministerial candidate.

The BJP insiders concede that the NDA will get almost all of the Koeri vote in the state so long as Kushwaha is part of it. But the party fears that if he is given too many seats to contest, he will be in a commanding position if the BJP has to seek his support in forming the government after the polls. He could even demand the chief minister's job, a senior BJP leader said.