If Prime Minister Narendra Modi fails to put an early end to the agitation for OBC status by the Patel community in Gujarat, there is a strong possibility the protests could hurt the Bharatiya Janata Party’s electoral prospects in Bihar, political observers suggest.

“The people of Bihar are politically very alert,” claimed a senior Congress office-bearer. “The protests in Gujarat will definitely have an impact in the Bihar assembly polls.”

Until this week, BJP leaders have been confident that their party has a clear edge over its rivals in the coming assembly polls. But the renewed debate on caste-based quotas could well shift the debate from economic development to reservations. In such a situation, the BJP may find it difficult to articulate its position in the election campaign.

It will prove particularly tough for Modi, who had projected himself as an OBC leader in the run-up to the last Lok Sabha elections. The leaders of the RJD-Janata Dal (U) combine, on the other hand, are staunch votaries of reservations. This debate could help them consolidate the support of the Yadavs, Kurmis, Mahadalits and Muslims in their favour.

Historical precedent

Political observers point to a notable precedent in the 1970s of events in Gujarat having an influence on politics in Bihar: the Nav Nirman Andolan launched by students and middle-class professionals in the western state inspired Jayaprakash Narayan to start a similar movement in Bihar.

The Nav Nirman Andolan agitation in Gujarat was essentially an uprising against unchecked inflation, poor educational opportunities and corruption. It eventually forced Prime Minister Indira Gandhi to dismiss the highly-unpopular Gujarat chief minister Chimanbhai Patel in 1974.

While Gujarat was in the grip of state-wide angry street protests, students in Bihar colleges were also on the warpath. Their agitation took the shape of a full-scale movement after Jayaprakash Narayan stepped in to lead them. Present-day political leaders such as Lalu Prasad Yadav of the Rashtriya Janata Dal, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar of the Janata Dal (United) and Lok Janshakti Party head Ram Vilas Paswan were active participants in the JP movement.

The current protests in Gujarat have put the focus on the highly-emotive issue of reservations. This could prove to be a hot political potato in Bihar, which witnessed the empowerment of  the Other Backward Classes after VP Singh implemented the Mandal Commission report in 1990 providing quotas for OBCs in government jobs. Having been a beneficiary of the pro-reservation movement, Nitish Kumar has been quick to back the demands of the Patel community. At the same time, Hardik Patel, who is the face of the Gujarat agitation, has publicly declared that he had found an ally in Nitish Kumar.

The BJP may also pay a price for not projecting a chief candidate in Bihar and depending on the prime minister’s charisma to win them this crucial assembly poll. The strategy had paid rich dividends in the 2014 general election when Modi became synonymous with economic progress. His Gujarat model of development was touted as a success story that would  be emulated in other parts of the country  if he was elected to power.

A similar story is being played out in Bihar, where Modi last week announced a Rs 1.25 lakh crore development package for the state. With Gujarat now in the grip of a violent stir, serious questions are already being raised about Modi’s capabilities and his development model.  “How will he manage Bihar, if he cannot control his own state?”  is the current refrain in Bihar.

Census data

Political leaders from the opposition camp also see a design in the Modi government’s sudden release of census data on religion. “It is no coincidence that this data was put out when the Patel stir was gaining momentum,” a senior Congress leader pointed out.

According to a veteran Socialist leader, the Modi government was obviously worried that the debate on reservations may spill over to Bihar. “The census data was, therefore, released to shift the focus from caste to religion and polarise the electorate on religious lines,” he alleged.

This, he said, is similar to the BJP’s strategy in the nineties when it launched the Ram Mandir movement after VP Singh announced the implementation of the Mandal Commission report.

“Caste is undoubtedly a factor in India but religion overshadows everything else,” he said. “Here, the BJP obviously wants to use religion to derive electoral benefit in Bihar.”